Oppenheimer’s John Stoltzfus has reclaimed his place as the most optimistic when it comes to year-end S & P 500 targets. Stoltzfus, the firm’s chief investment strategist, hiked his forecast for the S & P 500 to 5,500 from 5,200. That new target reflects a 5.1% upside over where the broad index finished last week and implies an approximately 15.3% total return for 2024. “For us the big surprise this year has not been so much the resilience of the economy but rather the substantial capitulation among the bears and bearish community,” he wrote in a Monday note to clients. Investor sentiment “appears to be supported by needs to invest for the future rather than chase the latest hot pick or actionable idea of the day.” .SPX YTD mountain The S & P 500, year to date With the’ increase, Stoltzfus regained his position as the most bullish of strategists tracked by CNBC Pro. He had the highest target price heading into the year at 5,200, but was outdone as some beat him to increasing their forecasts. “At the time we were even considered by some to be way too optimistic,” Stoltzfus said of his original target. Now, Stoltzfus acknowledged he may need to up his price outlook again later in the year if current projections prove too conservative. The strategist pointed to a range of variables as justification for his decision. He said strong earnings results from S & P 500-listed companies over the last two quarters played a role, as did economic data that shows continued resilience. Stoltzfus also increased his earnings projection for the S & P 500 in 2024 by $10 to $250, making him tied for another Street high. Additionally, he pointed to the fact that basically everyone has been surprised by the Federal Reserve’s ability to raise interest rates without tipping the economy into a recession thus far. Stoltzfus also cited a shift in mindset among some investors, who he said are more focused on having money in the market to support long-term financial goals as opposed to riding short-lived fads. “Perhaps the positive offset is found in the need to meet the challenge faced in providing for a child’s education, or ones retirement in a world where defined benefit pension plans are hard to find and Social Security benefits seem less likely to play the role they once played in past decades,” he said. “And perhaps the current market environment reflects not so much a desire to ‘play the market’ but a need to invest for meeting a higher goal more dependent on fundamentals than short-term trends.” With the increase, Stoltzfus’ predicted price is now about 8.8% higher than the average Wall Street strategist’s, according to CNBC Pro’s survey . (The typical strategist sees the index falling about 3.4% from where it currently sits.) Looking at the other end of the spectrum, it’s a whopping 31% higher than the lowest target of 4,200 held by JPMorgan’s Dubravko Lakos-Bujas. The benchmark S & P 500 has climbed nearly 10% so far in the new year. That builds on 2023’s rally of more than 24%.
