(This is CNBC Pro’s live coverage of Tuesday’s analyst calls and Wall Street chatter. Please refresh every 20-30 minutes to view the latest posts.) A newly spun-off company and a dating stock were in focus as part of Tuesday’s analyst chatter. Grinder was initiated with a market outperform rating at JMP, calling for strong gains ahead. Meanwhile, RBC began coverage of GE Vernova as outperform. Check out the latest calls and chatter below. All times ET. 6:07 a.m.: Citi moves off sidelines on Estee Lauder, citing inventory normalization Estee Lauder is on the verge of a turning point as closely watched channel inventories stabilize, Citi said. Analyst Filippo Falorni upgraded the cosmetics stock to buy from neutral and hiked his price target by $15 to $175. Falorni’s new target implies the stock can rally 15.1% from Monday’s close. Falorni said the stock was hurt in 2023 because of sales and profit degradation. But the Tom Ford and Le Labo parent said it will balance inventories in the Asia Pacific travel retail unit by the end of the third quarter of this year. “We believe the company is nearing a topline inflection point as channel inventories in Asia Pac Travel Retail are normalizing and EL is closer to balanced sell-in/sell-through,” he said. Elsewhere, Falorni acknowledged that Estee Lauder has expanded its profit recovery plan for the 2025 and 2026 fiscal years. This can set a baseline for earnings and help the market predict what a path to normalized financials looks like, he said. Shares rose more than 2% in Tuesday premarket trading. The stock has added about 4% so far this year, regaining some ground after sliding more than 41% in 2023 and almost 33% in 2022. EL YTD mountain — Alex Harring 5:52 a.m.: Prolonged real estate recovery can hurt Blackstone, says UBS A slow rebound for real estate can spell bad news for Blackstone , according to UBS. Analyst Brennan Hawken downgraded the investment asset manager to neutral from buy and cut his price target by $5 to $135. With that, Hawken sees an upside of 3% from Monday’s close. Performance, net subscriptions and fee-related performance revenues within perpetual real estate strategies have not recovered as fast as some expected, Hawken said. Now, he said to expect 2022 levels in 2026, with “modest” numbers next year followed by a “low-conviction growth forecast.” “The performance outlook for real estate remains challenged, in our view,” Hawken told clients. As a result of the landscape, assets under management in the firm’s real estate income trust have dropped. Hawken said the tough fee-related performance revenue numbers can weigh down fee-related earnings overall. He said to expect the margin for these earnings to come in around flat, with growth that’s considered below average. Still, he said management should be able to grow fees on assets under management in the future. Blackstone is around flat in 2024 despite the broader market uptrend. That marks a pause following 2023’s jump of 76.5%. Shares dipped 1% in thin premarket trading. — Alex Harring 5:45 a.m.: Grindr can rally more than 35%, JMP says Grindr shares can advance as the dating platform focused on LGBTQ+ men converts users to paying members, according to JMP. Analyst Nicholas Jones initiated coverage at market outperform. His $14 price target implies an upside of 36.9% over Monday’s closing level. Jones said Grindr has a runway to expand monetization by getting users to pay for features. Grindr currently converts users to paying at a rate of 7.1%, which is about half of what other dating apps see. However, JMP expects the percentage of paying customers to tick up to 8% by 2026. The total addressable market can also continue to grow as the LGBTQ+ community does, Jones said. And Grindr’s existing customer base is considered involved: Around 10% of users on the app between one and 10 hours a day, compared with 4% for other apps. “We expect its position to strengthen as it continues to convert its large network of highly engaged users to paying users,” Jones wrote to clients. Grindr shares have climbed more than 16% in 2024, extending last year’s gain of more than 88%. The stock, which went public in late 2022, won its first Wall Street initiation just last week. GRND YTD mountain Grindr in 2024 — Alex Harring 5:45 a.m.: RBC initiates GE Vernova as outperform A newly spun-off company is poised for solid gains ahead, according to RBC. Analyst Christopher Dendrinos initiated GE Vernova, General Electric’s power business, with an outperform rating and a price target of $160, implying a gain of 13%. The company will begin trading under the GEV ticker at the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday. “GEV participates across the electrification value chain providing the company with unique perspective and enables it to be an early mover in responding to the growing complexity and demand of electrical networks,” Dendrinos said. He also said that, as a standalone company, “GEV will benefit from greater flexibility to pursue high-growth and margin-accretive strategies and will face increased accountability across its business lines with the more focused portfolio.” “We believe this will help drive an acceleration in cost-out and simplification initiatives and should position the company to exceed its longer-term margin targets,” the analyst said. — Fred Imbert
